If This Bitcoin Halving Cycle is The Super Bowl, We Just Had The Coin Toss
The excitement around this Bitcoin halving cycle has risen to a level never before experienced even by the most enthusiastic Bitcoin OG maximalist. As Bitcoin’s price crossed it’s all-time high of about $20,000 on December 16, 2020, everyone in the Bitcoin community began popping the champagne to celebrate what they’ve known for years: Bitcoin is the best, most genius hard money and store of value ever invented.
And with it crossing into new, uncharted all-time high territory, the only questions that remain are how high will Bitcoin go and where are we in this cycle?
On November 9, I published an article that received a lot of attention called The 2020 Bitcoin Halving Bull Run: Why This Cycle is Different. In the article, I took a look at the macro economic conditions in this bull cycle that will ultimately make this cycle longer and stronger than any previous cycle, likely carrying us beyond the next halving. Interestingly enough, weeks later (and even today) you started to hear the analysts and pundits on YouTube echo my thoughts.
Fast forward to December 20, 2020 when YouTube’s Altcoin Daily brothers Aaron and Austin interviewed Bitcoin vet Dan Held. If you missed it, Dan shared his Bitcoin journey and also his view of where Bitcoin is headed in this halving cycle (worth every minute of the one hour interview, by the way). Like my take on this halving cycle from two months ago, Held had similar observations pointing to significant institutional adoption, endless printing of government fiat currency, and a resulting and never before seen “supply squeeze” that will ultimately drive Bitcoin’s price to seven-figure territory.
At this time, I was thinking about this article and the working title I had at the time was If This Bitcoin Halving Cycle is The Super Bowl, We Still Watching The Pregame Show. I thought a Super Bowl metaphor for this cycle was appropriate as The Super Bowl is both an American institution and entertainment spectacle. And although I’m really more of a baseball guy than a football guy, The Super Bowl seemed to be the perfect metaphor for the Bitcoin halving cycle. The game has a build up and anticipation unlike anything else in sports. The so-called experts and pundits come out in droves to make their prediction on not only who wins the game but what the final score will be. Just like what we’re experiencing now with Bitcoin.
So back to the Held interview with Altcoin Daily… For those of you not familiar with him, Held is very smart and very even-keeled. He’s not and excitable guy meaning he’s not one to show over exuberance or be sensational in delivering his message. In the interview, he had an interesting choice of words, however, when referring to this Bitcoin halving cycle.
“I think this could be a Bitcoin super cycle to a million (dollars)” said Held “if the whole world starts to recognize Bitcoin’s value”.
“Super cycle”. Let that sink in for a minute.
Now, fast forward to this holiday weekend. I had been preoccupied with some project deadlines coming into the Christmas holiday and hadn’t yet been able to write this Bitcoin Super Bowl article. My analogy for the original title for the article was that if you think passing the previous all-time high of $20,000 was something, you haven’t seen anything yet as the game hasn’t even started.
Just like the build up to The Super Bowl, there’s tons of hype, energy, and euphoria. And just like The Super Bowl, the game and everything around it is a spectacle whether you’re in the stadium watching live or at home hosting one of the thousands upon thousands of Super Bowl parties.
People at home are ready to watch The Super Bowl, preparing food to feed an army, and firing up the big screen TV to pontificate and trash talk on not only who will win the game, but to check out the crazy TV commercials that will be aired. Will there be a legendary commercial like the one by Apple in 1984 that was only aired that one time?
And, of course, there’s the obligatory Super Bowl pool. You know the deal, spend $5 or $10 to buy a square for your chance to win some money at the end of each quarter. Of course, you don’t have to be a football fan to enjoy a Super Bowl party. Yes, it’s a winner-take-all game but it’s more than that. It’s a state of mind, a spectacle, a thrill to watch, and a really fun time.
So during the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day, I’m watching Bitcoin’s price more or less go sideways but in a slight upward trend in a rising channel. I tell my wife, “don’t be surprised if Bitcoin hits $30,000 by New Year’s Day”. Well the countdown to New Year’s Day came in like Jack Nicholson in The Shining, Bitcoin knocking at the $30K’s door creepily exclaiming “Heeeeere’s Johnny!”
December 2020 was the pre-game show. The month started at about $19,000 and everyone was fixated on it breaking its all-time high of $20K. A dip to $18k on December 11 dampened hopes for a minute. By December 16 Bitcoin crawled back up to $20K and blasted through on its way to marching to $26K. Another sideways pause and we were off to $29K. We were mesmerized every day, watching and waiting to see what would happen next. We just couldn’t take our eyes off Bitcoin. By the end of December, Bitcoin steadily inched higher on its way to an incredible $29,000.
We hope you enjoyed the pre-game show. Get ready because the game is about to begin and it’s gonna be a barnburner. Get your beer and pretzels and stay tuned for the game of your life — like no other you’ve seen before. True greatness that is Bitcoin will be on display for the whole world to enjoy.
Fast forward to this morning (January 2, 2020). I get up about 5 am PT and before I can get my coffee going, my phone is blowing up. Bitcoin hits $30,000. No, wait…$31,000…. $32,000. And there’s no end in sight.
December 2020 was the pre-game show for the Bitcoin Super Bowl super cycle. We just had the coin toss and the Bitcoin Super Bowl super cycle is about to get underway. The game’s about to start and there’s an air of anticipation, of excitement, of possibilities. The excitement’s so thick you can cut it with a knife.
And just like the Super Bowl, we can’t wait to check the score at each quarter to see who won the pot for the Bitcoin Super Bowl super cycle pool. For me? It’s all about the half-time show — around August 2021 — when the real show begins. And of course this bull super cycle should be an edge-of-you-seat nail-biter right down to the closing seconds of the game. My guess? This Bitcoin halving super cycle goes into overtime (at least one quarter) before the final score will be known. But one thing is for sure. If you’re a Bitcoin HODLer, you’ll be a big winner. What’s certain is it’ll be a-thrill-a-minute no matter whether you HODL Bitcoin or not. Either way, it’s gonna be a great game.
About The Author
Mitchell Koulouris is a Bitcoin analyst and pundit. You can follow Mitchell on Twitter at @MitchKoulouris contact Mitchell at mitchkoul@gmail.com. Subscribe to Mitch’s YouTube channel, Bitcoin Informant at https://www.youtube.com/c/BitcoinInformantShow.
